The Remains of the Day

Kazuo Ishiguro’s Booker-winning story of unspoken love for anyone who’s ever held their true feelings back, seems to sum up the experience of many Remainers, where these voters were forced into a stubborn silence. Feeling bullied by the Government’s increasingly priapic rush to a Hard Brexit and vilified as Saboteurs and Remoaners; the 48% had their revenge through the ballot box by overturning Theresa May’s majority and returning a well hung parliament. This, it would seem, is the most frequently voiced synopsis of last week’s election; the Remains had their day, but is this really the explanation?


Whilst the Labour Party did pick up a huge number of seats, which had voted to stay in the EU, from the Conservatives, this would not explain the reason for the Phoenix like rise of the Conservatives in Scotland; a part of the UK that had voted to remain in the EU by a very significant margin. Labour too has been crowing about its results in England, but they are also particularly taciturn about their performance in Scotland. It wasn’t just about Brexit.

What then might also have been a significant factor in the election?
Could Big Data help us we asked ourselves? So, we decided we would put our resident boffins to work, to see if HOUSEPRICE.AI could come up with something that might explain these unexpected electoral results. Across England & Wales there were 28 swings to Labour from the Conservatives, the average swing for those parliamentary constituencies was 12.14%, which is historically very large.

CONSTITUENCY MAJORITY SWING
Battersea45.99.1
Bedford46.96.7
Brighton, Kemptown58.319.2
Bristol North West50.616.3
Bury North53.64
Canterbury4520.5
Cardiff North50.111.9
Colne Valley47.712.7
Crewe and Nantwich47.19.4
Croydon Central 52.39.7
Derby North48.512
Enfield, Southgate 51.712.7
Gower49.912.8
High Peak49.714.3
Ipswich47.410.3
Keighley46.58.4
Kensington42.211.1
Lincoln47.98.3
Peterborough 48.1 12.5
Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport 53.4 16.7
Portsmouth South4121.5
Reading East4916
Stockton South48.511.5
Stroud479.3
Vale of Clwyd50.211.9
Warrington South48.49.3
Warwick and Leamington46.711.8
Weaver Vale51.510.1
But this simple table does not tell us much about the 2017 election, what kind of correlations are there between the housing market and the electoral results? £20.77 billion of residential home sales were transacted in these 28 new MP’s constituencies over the last year, with incredibly just two, Battersea and Kensington accounting for more than 30% of that total. There were a total of 62,602 transactions, with an average value of £325,629 and with an average price per square meter of £3,412.60 The chart below shows the percentage swing to Labour from Conservative, vs the price paid per square meter and also showing the aggregate size of transactions in all residential property in that constituency over the last year.
So what can we conclude from this quick analysis?

Battersea also stands out in having many more property transactions than the other constituencies, transacting over 74% more than the average of 2236.

Firstly, overall no surprises that there is no correlation between house prices and political outlook in this sample. The value of a home does not determine its owners political outlook. This will be a boon to pollsters and Labour political canvassers, who can legitimately door knock in Kensington and North Bury with equal hope.
Secondly, Estate Agents in Battersea must be worried about the rise of Internet Agents, 1.5% fees on an average Battersea property of £936,187, equate to fees of over £14,000 and with such a high number of transactions, that looks a sitting duckhouse.