Season's Greetings from Houseprice.AI

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Social Media for AI

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Old tech for AI

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The best UK cities for Trick or Treating 2017

In his Sunday Proptech Review, James Dearsley threw down the gauntlet for a UK company to take up an interesting challenge. Every year the American on line real estate data company, Zillow, use their analytics to create a light hearted look at the best cities in which to Trick or Treat.

So being a team that never shirk from a challenge, we at Houseprice.AI, have just crunched the numbers to find the best cities in the UK for your little monsters to score the most treats. Similar to the US based index, these cities have a population of at least 500,000 souls and are based on median home sales values, and favour those locations where the demographics show there are more children aged 10 and under and where there is high residential property density, meaning less walking from door-to-door. Lastly, because this is the country that brought Harry Potter to the world and is a global leader in potions and spells, we have added a little extra to the index, in the form of Gross Disposable Household Income. After all, you obviously would want to be knocking on doors where sweets are most likely to be lurking!

Check out the complete Trick-or-Treat Index, and the top areas in each city, below. Click on the map to see how your local area measures up on Trick-or-Treat Index!

Name Population Child Rating Median Price TT Index
Birmingham 2440986 96.85% 165k 67.96
Leeds 1777934 82.56% 162k 58.95
London 9787426 89.31% 495k 53.76
Bristol 617280 82.59% 245k 49.99
Manchester 2553379 88.72% 142k 47.55
Sheffield 685368 76.49% 130k 46.88
Leicester 508916 93.30% 175k 43.52
Liverpool 864122 73.54% 127k 41.82
Newcastle 774891 74.35% 132k 39.08
Southampton 855569 78.97% 260k 39.01
Nottingham 729977 81.32% 142k 38.17

The Houseprice AI Trick-or-Treat index is made up three equally weighted variables, the median sales price, the Regional gross disposable household income (GDHI) by each Local Authority and the proportion of all children up to and including 10 years of age as a percentage of the whole population by each Local Authority. Each of these variables is compared to the highest value nationally to create the component variable. The index is based on a sample of 149,783 property transactions from all cities and urban groupings in the UK with a population of over 500,000.

Happy Halloween from the team at Houseprice.AI!

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The drivers of success

At Houseprice.AI we believe that transparency, honesty and consistency are the drivers of success. This vision is what drives us in providing our customers with the best quantifiable valuation of residential property in the market. By combining Big Data and AI with our experience, we continuously improve our machine valuation model (MVM) ensuring that we are are at the forefront of the Proptech/Fintech boundary. Are you using AI in your business yet? If not it might be costing you an arm and a leg.

What's the fair price? Houseprice.AI.

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New Reactive Valuation Report

Horizon introduces the most advanced property valuation report on the market.

Here is what’s new.

We have been listening to all our users feedback and we are now excited to share a cleaner, improved, more usable and readable value report. It is reactive to mobile and tablets and it still has the beloved features like area analytics, custom branding, chat, social media integration, 360 photo support and viewers tracking.

Horizon is designed for property professionals, estate agents, surveyors, investors and developers, our new amazing customised reactive marketing reports are fast and precise and are used to get objective information for key decisions in property buying, capital appreciation, development value and rental returns.

Horizon covers the entire UK and can value any property using AI. Click the button to see an example Buyers report.

Horizon delivers:

Historical valuations Macro economics
Post to social mediaShare via E-mail
Live chat360 camera views
Real time report trackingReports branded with your Logo
Marketing AutomationIntegrate to your Website

Prediction accuracy

The Horizon App is powered by Houseprice.AI, the most accurate machine valuation model API to determine residential property values, forecast 3-year returns and to estimate rental returns.

Using Bigdata, Houseprice.AI MVM aggregates millions of data elements, including more than 20 years of property data and continuously evolving proprietary calculations and analytics, to accurately define and forecast values and market influences.

Big, clean data is required for the analytics we do. We have built, and will continue to build, the most complete property data set in the marketplace. Every data element we include is based on clear reasoning for why this factor matters. We monitor the most specific details about a given property, the broadest macroeconomic factors, and everything in between.

The Trouble with Housing Bubbles

Is there a housing bubble? Since the Brexit referendum the news has been filled with threats about a possible housing crash. Tabloid scaremongering with headlines back in July like “ Britain 'is on the brink of housing price collapse' in the Daily Mail Online, and Britain on 'edge of worst house price collapse since 1990s' in the Sun. Now, however, they seem to be back peddling as the Halifax house price index shows that house prices have not dramatically fallen through the floor.

The house price index shows that in some cities like Leeds and Manchester house prices are still on the up. So, there isn’t one bubble, there are many bubbles, so it is less like one big Lindor and more like an Aero.Or because financial institutions and Governments like stability, more like a Crunchie. These housing bubbles have not exactly burst but now homeowners who have basked in rising prices for years will have to get used to slower rates of growth or maybe even a drop in the value of their home. But a generation of renters faced with increasingly unattainable property prices, when prices are much higher than incomes can afford, will be relieved to see the market cool off so that they can afford to get on the property ladder.

Mortgage lenders rushed to offer lower mortgage rates earlier this year to encourage home ownership.However, there is a lot of speculation that the Bank of England may raise interest rates to curb inflation soon, and this will make it harder for people on variable rate mortgages to repay them. High ownership ratio combined with an increased rate of low Mortgage rates may signal higher debt levels associated with bubbles.

While people are paying high rental prices they cannot also afford to enter an expensive market. At present, many first time buyers are looking to have to save as much as £33,000 just for a deposit, with an average income this just is not possible, certainly not quickly, and this slows the market. There need to be first time buyers to keep the chains alive. When the market stagnates, vendors have no choice but to lower their asking prices. This produces a small scale cycle resembling the fox and rabbit ecology model.

In November 2015 The House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee launched a new inquiry into the economics of the UK housing market. The Committee investigates the supply and affordability of housing across the housing market and reviews the effectiveness of the Government's policies to provide low cost housing to rent and to buy. Lord Hollick, Chairman of the Committee, commented: "There are clearly serious issues with the UK housing market. Across the country, young people in particular are struggling with the cost of housing, whether they are looking to buy or rent. There is an affordability crisis in housing.”

Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government, Sajid Javid, made a statement in the Commons on local housing needs yesterday. Speaking in the House of Commons, Javid said that if lasting change is to be made, a proper understanding of how many homes are needed, and where, is required, and the existing system “is not good enough”. He said a “consistent approach” is a necessity. If we stay with the fox and rabbit model, the Government is trying here to introduce some wild hares.

An ONS study published 4th December 2016 found that 1 in 4 young adults are living with their parents. If cheaper housing stock appears on the market, these boomerang children will be able to afford a place of their own. Parents living in an empty nest are then able to downsize, and therefore make more family properties available.

The Guardian has reported a positive outlook on 12th August. Martin Beck at consultancy Oxford Economics said there was a lack of drivers to push up house price growth but equally an absence of the kind of forces which have typically caused prices to fall. “UK house price growth is running out of steam. And with household incomes squeezed and the affordability of housing stretched, we think a prolonged period of very modest growth lies ahead. But the prospect of a crash is remote,” he said.

Thomas Fisher, an economist at PwC, said: “Factoring in continued pressure on household incomes in the second half of the year, we anticipate a likely weakening in UK house price inflation to around 4pc on average for 2017.”

So maybe these bubbles won’t exactly burst, but like a whoopee cushion, let out a little sigh.